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-- COVID-19 Economic Impacts -- (People get sick and die (Clinic and…
-- COVID-19 Economic Impacts --
People change travel & routines
Fewer flights and flight hours
:airplane:
Fewer hotel stays
:hotel:
Families consolidate locations :house_buildings:
Major events cancelled
Sporting events :sports_medal:
Conferences :silhouettes:
Social, music, etc :musical_note:
People stop going to work or work from home :telephone_receiver:
Fewer vehicle miles :blue_car:
Schools close intermittent, possibly rest of year :school:
Use of public transport minimized :bus:
People shift spending
MINUS
Frivolous consumption
Durables delayed (cars)
Pull money from investments :heavy_dollar_sign:
Dining out :knife_fork_plate:
Bricks and Mortar retail
Tourism declines
Casinos
Urban destinations
Rural retreats?
Impacted countries, regions
Public use facilities (e.g., gyms, strip malls)
:weight_lifter:
PLUS
Masks, Cleaners, PPE, etc
Non-perishable Food
Online and wireless comms consumption
Delivery services
Guns & Ammo
Media/entertainment consumption
People get sick and die
Preventative med demand up (immune)
Healthcare worker demand up
Attempts at a vaccine
Clinic and Hospital demand up
H/c labor shortages
Patient quarters overbooked, new facilities constructed
In-home quarantine
Enforcement Security?
Testing kit demand
Meds demand up for correlated health issues
Elderly deaths, estate turnover
Urban deaths, estate turnover
Disinfectant demand up
Global supply chain
Industries most dependent on Asian imports run out of stock
Retailers run out of stock
Consumers and companies shift spend to substitutes
Significant corporate layoffs
Debt-laden companies default Ch11
Capital markets
Debt holders collect and place new restrictions on credit
Hot money moves from Equity to Gold, Debt
Suppliers tighten terms, scrutinize credit risk
Govt fiscal stimulus, lower lending rates
Currency collapse in weakened economies
Open issues
What happens to construction activity?
What happens to the value of real estate?
How far will commodity prices go? oil, cattle
When will public gain comfort with C19 risk?
Bold
= already occurring in U.S.